Global manufacturing growth increases but prospects for recovery remain dim - UNIDO report
VIENNA, 4 June 2013 – World industrial production growth increased slightly in the first quarter of 2013 after a nearly three-year-long downward trend, however, the prospect of recovery remains fragile for the majority of industrialized, and developing and emerging industrial economies, according to a report published today by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO).
World manufacturing output grew by 1.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2013 – up from 1.3 percent in the last quarter of 2012. The declining trend of manufacturing output seems to have been reversed both in industrialized and developing and emerging industrial economies. However, growth prospects remain fragile due to the prolonged recession in Europe.
The report notes that the recovery of industrialized economies has been jeopardized by stagnation in Europe due to austerity measures. Manufacturing output in France fell by 4.2 percent, in Germany by 1.7 percent, in Italy by 4.5 percent, in the Russian Federation by 3.1 percent and in the United Kingdom by 2.1 percent. Positive growth in Europe was maintained by a few smaller economies, including Austria, Estonia and Denmark. The currently observed, slow industrial growth suggests that the large number of unemployed will not be absorbed by the economy in the foreseeable future.
Manufacturing output in the United States systematically increased in 2012 and the first quarter of 2013. The most impressive growth was observed in machinery and equipment, electrical appliances and the manufacture of motor vehicles. Japan’s manufacturing output dropped in the first quarter but showed signs of rebound with a 2.0 percent growth on a quarter-to-quarter basis.
Among developing and emerging industrial economies (a new country classification group recently introduced for UNIDO statistics publications), China’s manufacturing output grew by 9.7 percent, slightly down from 10.0 percent in the previous quarter. The growth rates in other major developing and emerging industrial economies were moderate. Brazil’s production rose by 1.6 percent, India’s 2.5 percent, Indonesia’s 4.5 percent, Mexico’s 1.1 percent and Turkey’s 4.0. The main reason for the lower rate of growth has been a fall in exports to industrialized countries and low capital inflow to developing countries in return.
Estimates based on limited data show that the manufacturing output of least developed countries (LDCs) grew by 4.0 percent in the first quarter of 2013. Bangladesh, the largest economy among the LDCs, reported a 2.6 percent growth.
UNIDO’s quarterly report presents the latest estimates of world industrial growth by country groups and by manufacturing sector. The current report is released with seasonally adjusted figures.
UNIDO maintains an international industrial statistical database in accordance with the mandate of the United Nations Statistics Commission. Data is disseminated through publications, CD products and an online web-portal.
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UNIDO Chief Statistician